XRP has weathered a pullback from its May highs, but technical analysis suggests the decline may be a temporary breather within a larger bullish cycle.
What to know
- XRP has held firmly above the $1.38 support level, displaying resilience in the face of selling pressure.
- The pullback since the May 10 high is being interpreted as a three-wave corrective decline by analysts at More Crypto Online.
- A critical swing-low zone sits around $1–$1.50; as long as buyers defend this area, the path for a new upswing remains.
- On-chain data from Santiment shows that wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP reached a record high, signaling ongoing accumulation.
- XRP previously broke through $1.46 despite $434 million in futures selling, indicating strong spot demand.
- Broader market conditions feature Bitcoin testing $80,000 support, with analysts warning of a crucial resistance level ahead.
The Pullback in Perspective
The recent decline from XRP's May 10 high has stirred debate among traders. Is this the start of a deeper downturn, or simply a pause within a rising trend? According to a detailed analysis by More Crypto Online, the price structure points firmly to the latter.
The move down is unfolding as a three-wave pattern — a classic corrective formation in Elliott Wave theory. This suggests that the selling is not aggressive enough to shift the larger trend, and that the path of least resistance remains higher.
XRP's ability to bounce repeatedly off the $1.38 level adds weight to this view. Each test of that zone has been met with buying interest, turning it into a technical floor that bulls are actively defending.
Why the $1.38 Support Level Matters
Support levels are only meaningful if they hold under pressure. XRP has now tested the $1.38 area multiple times during this pullback, and each time buyers have stepped in. This consistency transforms a simple price level into a structural line in the sand.
If $1.38 were to break decisively, the next major demand zone lies near the $1–$1.50 region — a broad area that encompasses previous swing lows and order blocks. More Crypto Online highlights that as long as that higher zone is preserved, the broader bullish framework remains intact.
The defense of the $1–$1.50 swing low is the critical condition for the next leg higher. Without it, the corrective label could be called into question.
The market's reaction around these levels will likely determine the direction for weeks to come. For now, the data suggests that institutional and large retail wallets are positioning themselves accordingly.
On-Chain Signals Show Accumulation
While price action offers one lens, on-chain data provides another. The XRP Ledger recently hit an all-time high in the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP, according to analytics firm Santiment. This metric, which tracks larger holders, has been climbing since mid-2024, indicating a steady build-up of conviction among well-capitalized participants.
This accumulation trend lends credibility to the idea that the current pullback is being absorbed rather than triggering panic selling. If large holders were expecting a deeper decline, they would likely be reducing exposure, not increasing it.
Broader Market Context
The crypto market is never an island. Bitcoin is currently attempting to hold $80,000 as support, with analysts pointing to a key resistance zone that could determine the next major move. A decisive break higher by Bitcoin would likely lift altcoins like XRP along with it. Conversely, a breakdown could spill over into selling pressure across the board.
XRP has already shown relative strength by pushing above $1.46 in the face of $434 million in futures selling — a sign that spot demand is absorbing derivative-driven volatility. This kind of decoupling from short-term selling pressure is often a hallmark of a maturing uptrend.
The Technical Structure: Three Waves and a Possible Trigger
Returning to the chart, the three-wave decline from the May 10 high fits neatly into a larger corrective pattern. In Elliott Wave terms, this could be wave 4 of a five-wave advance, with wave 5 still to come. Alternatively, it could be a flat or zigzag correction within a broader range.
More Crypto Online emphasizes that the pattern is not yet confirmed as bearish. The key is the reaction at the $1–$1.50 zone. If prices hold there and start to reverse, the next move could be swift and strong.
The TD Sequential indicator has also flashed a buy signal on XRP, according to related analysis. This timing tool often identifies exhaustion points in a trend, and its appearance on a pullback suggests that selling momentum may be waning.
Looking Ahead
The next few trading sessions will be critical for XRP. The $1.38 level remains the immediate battleground, but the broader $1–$1.50 zone is the true line of defense. If buyers can keep the price above that area, the stage is set for a potential rally that could challenge prior highs.
On-chain accumulation, a corrective wave count, and a buy signal from the TD Sequential all align to support the bull case. However, the market is unpredictable, and a break below $1 could change the narrative quickly. For now, More Crypto Online and a growing number of analysts see the current pullback as an opportunity, not a reversal.
