Bitcoin's brief recovery above $78,000 evaporated as the asset slipped back below $77,000, dragged down by a deteriorating MACD and a sudden spike in crude oil prices.
What to know
- Bitcoin dropped below $77,000 for the first time since April 22, touching a low of $76,180 on April 28.
- The breakdown followed a failed attempt to hold above $78,000 earlier in the week.
- The MACD histogram turned red, a classic bearish signal indicating fading buying momentum.
- West Texas Intermediate crude surged past $104 per barrel, rattling risk assets across the board.
- The $77,000 mark has been a key resistance-turned-support; Bitcoin first broke below it in early February.
- A prior retest of $77,000 on April 17 failed, reinforcing seller dominance.
- On-chain data reveals increased spot-to-derivatives flows, hinting at renewed risk appetite despite the pullback.
- After the dip, Bitcoin found support near $75,600 and bounced back toward $76,600, with derivatives signaling de-risking and speculative flows building in memecoins.
The Break Below $77,000
On April 28, Bitcoin slipped below the psychologically important $77,000 mark, hitting a daily low of $76,180 — its weakest price since April 22. The move wiped out gains from a brief rally earlier in the week that had pushed the asset above $78,000, briefly restoring optimism among buyers. That recovery has now been fully erased, leaving traders to reassess the near-term setup.
According to multiple reports, the slide was triggered by a combination of deteriorating technical signals and external pressure from energy markets. The MACD histogram turned red, a classic warning that buying momentum is fading. At the same time, West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged past $104 per barrel, roiling broader risk sentiment and dragging cryptocurrencies lower.
Technical Warning Signs
The MACD — a widely followed momentum oscillator — has been a key concern for BTC analysts. The red histogram signal suggests that downside momentum is accelerating, raising the probability of further losses if support levels break. Historically, such signals have preceded corrections of varying magnitude, though they have also been known to generate false alarms in volatile markets.
The $77,000 level itself carries significant technical weight. Bitcoin first broke below it in early February and spent weeks trading beneath it. When it finally reclaimed that threshold on April 22, it seemed like the beginning of the end for the prolonged consolidation. But the subsequent failure to hold above $78,000 and the breakdown on April 28 suggest that sellers remain firmly in control.
A failed retest on April 17 — when Bitcoin attempted to reclaim $77,000 but was rejected — kept pressure on the bulls. That rejection, combined with the MACD turn, set the stage for the current move.
Oil Spillover
The timing of Bitcoin 's slide coincided with a sharp rally in crude oil. Reports indicate that West Texas Intermediate crude climbed past $104 per barrel, with some headlines later pushing toward $111 on geopolitical concerns, including potential extended blockades in the Hormuz Strait. Energy price spikes tend to dampen risk appetite across asset classes, and crypto has not been immune.
The correlation between oil and Bitcoin has been inconsistent, but the simultaneous nature of the moves suggests that macro factors are currently dominating sentiment. As BTC fell, the S&P 500 also declined at the US market open, confirming a broad risk-off mood.
A Bounce From Support
Despite the selloff, there have been glimmers of resilience. On-chain data reported by newsbtc.com shows that spot-to-derivatives flow volumes in the Bitcoin sector surged recently, indicating a potential return of risk appetite among sophisticated traders. Additionally, after hitting support near $75,600, Bitcoin managed to bounce back toward $76,600, with derivatives data signaling that de-risking was already underway and speculative flows were building in memecoins ahead of tech earnings.
This suggests that while retail sentiment may be shaken, professional traders are positioning for a possible rebound — or at least hedging against further downside. The ability of BTC to hold above $75,600 will be crucial in determining whether the current dip is a buying opportunity or a precursor to a deeper correction.
Looking Ahead
The immediate trajectory for Bitcoin hinges on whether it can stabilize above $75,600 and eventually reclaim $77,000. The MACD red signal points to further downside risk, but the on-chain data showing increased risk flows suggests that not all market participants are fleeing.
Oil markets remain volatile, and any escalation in geopolitical tensions could continue to pressure risk assets. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is preparing for a decision, and traders are also watching for any shift in US trade policy.
The next few days will be critical. If BTC can hold support and begin to build a base, the failed breakout above $78,000 may be viewed as a temporary setback. If it loses $75,600, the path to lower levels could open up.
In summary, Bitcoin is at a crossroads. The confluence of technical weakness and macro headwinds creates a challenging environment, but the underlying on-chain data suggests that risk appetite is not entirely extinguished. Traders should watch the $75,600-$77,000 range closely in the days ahead.
