Bitcoin tumbled below $60,000 over the weekend, and while some traders see a buying opportunity, one experienced analyst warns that the real entry point may still be ahead. Drawing on the Wyckoff accumulation model, the current price structure echoes the painful bottoming process of 2022 — and history suggests this bounce could be a trap.
What to know
- Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 over the weekend, reigniting bearish sentiment across the market.
- Analyst Merlijn The Trader cautions that the current rebound is likely a bear-market rally, not the start of a new uptrend.
- His analysis is built around the Wyckoff accumulation model, using Bitcoin’s 2022 bottoming structure as the reference point.
- In that cycle, Bitcoin formed a "spring" around $15,500, then recovered into the $23,000 region, where eager buyers rushed in.
- However, that recovery was not the bottom — a secondary wave of selling followed, crushing those late entrants.
- Merlijn believes the current bounce from $60,000 follows the same dangerous pattern.
- The true accumulation window, he argues, has not yet opened. Buying now could lead to heavy losses.
- Investors may need to wait for a lower price before deploying fresh capital.
The Wyckoff Playbook
Merlijn The Trader is no stranger to market cycles. His current forecast rests on the Wyckoff accumulation model, a classic technical framework that maps the behavior of smart money during market bottoms. The model describes a sequence of phases: selling climax, automatic rally, secondary test, and the accumulation range.
In the 2022 cycle, Bitcoin executed this pattern with precision. After crashing to $15,500 — the spring — it bounced sharply to $23,000. That move convinced many that the worst was over. Yet the Wyckoff model predicted exactly what happened next: a secondary sell-off that took prices lower, punishing the impatient.
"The recovery to $23,000 was the hook. The real opportunity came later, at a lower price." — Merlijn The Trader
Now, Merlijn The Trader sees the same setup playing out around $60,000. The weekend crash triggered a spring-like move, followed by a rapid bounce. But according to him, this is not the moment to go all in.
Echoes of the 2022 Bottom
The parallels are hard to ignore. Back in 2022, Bitcoin fell to $15,500, then recovered to $23,000 — a 48% bounce. That rally sucked in buyers who believed the bottom was in. Then came the real pain: a secondary decline that took prices back to the spring area and beyond, shaking out the weak hands.
Today, the numbers are different but the pattern is eerily similar. Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 and quickly bounced. The question is whether this bounce will hold or fail.
Merlijn The Trader argues that it will likely fail. The Wyckoff model requires a secondary test of the lows — or even a lower low — before the accumulation phase can begin. He points out that the current bounce lacks the volume and conviction that marked the true bottom in 2022. Instead, it looks like the automatic rally phase, a temporary relief before selling resumes.
"Buying this bounce would be repeating the mistake of 2022. The accumulation window has not even opened yet."
The Danger of Buying the Bounce
For traders who missed the spring at $60,000, the instinct to chase the bounce is strong. But Merlijn The Trader warns that this is exactly what the smart money wants. In the Wyckoff model, the automatic rally is designed to lure in late buyers, providing liquidity for institutional accumulation at lower levels.
If history repeats, the next move could be a secondary sell-off that pushes Bitcoin back toward $60,000 — or below. That would be the true opportunity. The analyst emphasizes that the real accumulation phase starts only after the secondary test is complete and the market has exhausted selling pressure.
“This is a test of discipline,” he says. “The opportunity will come, but not yet.”
What to Watch Next
Several key signals will determine whether the Wyckoff pattern is playing out as expected. First, watch the volume on any further declines. A low-volume sell-off would confirm that sellers are drying up. Second, look for a clear break above the $60,000 level on strong volume — that could invalidate the bearish thesis.
Merlijn The Trader is not calling for a total collapse. He simply advises patience. The path of least resistance, based on the Wyckoff model, is lower before higher.
Traders should prepare for a possible dip into the mid-to-low $50,000 range. That would align with the spring and secondary test structure seen in 2022. If that level holds, it could mark the start of a new accumulation phase — and the real buying opportunity.
Looking Ahead
The Wyckoff accumulation model has long been a trusted tool for navigating market bottoms. Merlijn The Trader’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current price action is following a familiar script. The weekend crash to $60,000 may have been the spring, but the final act — the secondary sell-off — is likely still ahead.
For now, the most prudent strategy is to wait. The real opportunity, as Merlijn The Trader puts it, will come at a lower price. When the dust settles, the accumulation phase will open — and that will be the time to act.
